An unlikely force shaping West Asia

Emerging in the 1990s as a resistance movement against the corrupt Yemen government, the Houthis soon gained popularity as an armed political and religious group which champions Yemen’s Shia Muslim minority, the Zaidis. Forcing the country’s internationally recognized government to flee to the southern city of Aden in 2014, the Houthis have established themselves as the de facto government of Yemen. 
 
Declaring to be a part of the Iranian-led “Axis of resistance” against Israel, the US, and the wider West, the Houthis have built their ideology targeting them, as evident in their slogan “Death to America, death to Israel, curse upon the Jews, victory to Islam”.
 
Formerly known as the Ansar Allah (Partisans of God), little is known about their leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi. Sanctioned by both, the U.S. Treasury and the UN Security Council from 2015, al-Houthi was still able to create a defiant force that would challenge the world powers. 
 
Despite their affinity for Iran, the Houthis deny being puppets of Tehran. What brings Houthis close to Iran and its proxies is the common dissatisfaction with the status quo of West Asia, one which is largely influenced by the US and its partners, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia.
 
Since Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attack on Israel and Israel’s retaliatory military offensive in Gaza, the Houthis have intensified their attacks on Israel, the Red Sea and the US instalments in the region. The Houthis have since intensified their manpower and arsenal. The number of Houthi fighters is estimated at 350,000 now, compared with 220,000 in 2022 and 30,000 in 2015. Within the Axis, the militia has coordinated with the Iraq-based Islamic Resistance in their attacks against Israel. 

Houthi Arsenal- A Growing Threat
 
Defunct Yemeni military weapons purchased from the Soviet Union and North Korea played a critical role in the initial Houthi attacks. In recent years Houthis have bolstered their arsenal, and analysts credit this expansion to covert support from Iran, which has supplied weapons to all its proxies across West Asia. 
 
To challenge Saudi Arabia, its regional nemesis, Iran has equipped Houthis with relatively cheap weapons capable of striking far beyond Yemen’s borders. From 2015 to 2024, the US and its coalition partners intercepted at least 20 ships transporting Iranian missiles and advanced weapons to the Houthis. 

The reach and sophistication of their weapons were exhibited in their first attack on Tel Aviv on 19 July 2024. Without being detected by the radars, the Yaffa drone manoeuvred its way from Yemen and approached Tel Aviv from the west to attack. 

The Houthis further amplified attacks using their newly unveiled Palestine-2 hypersonic ballistic missiles in December 2024. With better precision and strike rates, the Houthis claimed at least 12 attacks on Israel since 11 December 2024.  

Freedom of Navigation Crisis: War spills in the Red Sea
 
In an ostensible effort to enforce a naval blockade on Israel, the Houthis pivoted their attention to maritime targets in the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Gulf of Aden.
 
Attacking vessels linked directly or indirectly to Israel and its allies with the same agility and showmanship, the Houthis delivered their first propaganda victory by hijacking a Bahamas-flagged vessel on 19 November 2023. Subsequently, between November 2023 and August 2024, the Houthis attempted 159 attacks in the southern Red Sea, 70 in the Gulf of Aden, 45 in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and 2 in the western Arabian Sea.

Rising attacks led the shipping companies to opt for longer routes, adding an extra cost of $1 million for fuel. The war risk insurance premium for ships rose to 2% in 2024, up from just 0.05% before the crisis began. As a result of this disruption, Egypt suffered economically, losing over 60%, or $7 billion, of the revenue generated from the Suez Canal in 2024.
 
In response to these regional assaults, the US and its allies announced Operation Prosperity Guardian on 18 December 2023 and Operation Poseidon on 9 January 2024. In the latest salvo carried out on 30 and 31 December 2024, the US attacks struck a command node, and facilities used for manufacturing and storing ammunitions, and destroyed radar positions and one-way aerial drones. 
 
Houthi Ascendancy: Israel’s Constraints and the Search for Solutions
 
Predominantly viewed as a local threat by most international observers, Houthis locus standi changed after the Hamas-led 7 October attacks against Israel. 

As a result of their attacks on commercial ships, 50 nations have been affected, crews from more than 20 countries have been threatened or taken hostage in acts of piracy, and 2,000 ships have been forced to divert their routes. 
 
In addition, the militia has successfully tilted the local balance of power in their favour. Today, Saudi Arabia and the UAE do not want to embroil themselves in yet another intractable conflict with the Houthis. Meanwhile, Egypt is focusing on preventing a humanitarian catastrophe, which might have repercussions for its already precarious economy.
 
Among the “axis of resistance”, the Houthis remain the only defiant force attacking Israel, with top Hamas leaders assassinated and a ceasefire observed with Hezbollah. 

In an escalating statement, Israel announced that it will begin targeting Houthi leaders. However, killing leaders of this distant foe would be challenging for Israel. The lack of intelligence on Houthi leaders, reliance on allies to conduct counter-strikes against Houthi attacks, and the distance between the two countries, hinder the IDF’s ability to operate swiftly.
 
Israel needs indispensable international support to stop the barrage of airstrikes by the Houthis. A more assertive coalition to thwart Houthis’ ability to smuggle weapons and intelligence liaison from nations that have fought with Houthis previously are prerequisites to weakening Houthis. If Israel and its allies fail to address the Houthi threat, it will only grow.