Israel’s probe finds ‘complete failure’ in preventing Hamas’ Oct 7 attack

The first Israeli military inquiry into the October 7, 2023, attacks has concluded that officials were caught off guard due to a severe misjudgment of Hamas’s intentions and capabilities, right up until the moment the assault began.

Failure to anticipate the attack

The investigation revealed that no one in Israel had foreseen the scale of the attack. “No one anywhere in Israel was able to say on 6:29 am on Oct. 7 that Hamas is about to perform a major attack on Israel. There was no such person in our system,” a military official said, referencing the moment Hamas launched 1,400 rockets to divert attention from its ground invasion.

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The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) admitted its failure to protect Israeli civilians. “The Gaza Division was overrun in the early hours of the war, as terrorists took control and carried out massacres in the communities and roads in the area,” the military said in a report summary shared with journalists.

Warning signs were overlooked

Despite clear signs of an impending attack, Israeli officials failed to treat them with urgency. According to the report, Hamas militants activated Israeli SIM cards and moved forces to designated gathering points on the evening of October 6, yet these movements did not trigger immediate action.

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The probe acknowledged the military’s “complete failure” to prevent the attack. “October 7 was a complete failure, the IDF failed in fulfilling its mission to protect Israeli civilians,” an official told AFP anonymously. “Too many civilians died that day, asking themselves in their hearts or out loud, where was the IDF?”

A senior military official admitted, “We did not even imagine such a scenario,” adding that Hamas not only surprised Israel with the size and scale of the attack but also with its “brutality”.

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The Israeli military conceded that it had been “overconfident” in its assessment of Hamas’s capabilities. A senior military official said that the army lacked “a comprehensive understanding of the enemy’s military capabilities” and misjudged the threat.

The report outlined that Hamas’s attack came in three waves, ultimately leading to over 5,000 people crossing into Israel from Gaza. “The first wave… included more than 1,000 Nukhba terrorists who infiltrated under the cover of heavy fire,” the summary stated. The second wave involved 2,000 militants, while the third saw hundreds more arrive, along with thousands of civilians. “In total, approximately 5,000 terrorists infiltrated Israeli territory during the attack,” the report confirmed.

Warnings ignored for years

The findings also revealed that Israeli intelligence had been aware of a Hamas plan to attack southern Israel as early as 2022. The document, known as “Operation Jericho Wall,” was deemed by officials to be more aspirational than a concrete plan for war.

Hamas approved the theoretical plan in 2019 and granted operational approval in August 2021. By April 2022, the group was already selecting potential dates for the attack, with only a select few aware of the full details. Thousands of operatives had trained for years in preparation.

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“We ended up with a strategy that collapsed on Oct. 7,” a senior military official admitted ahead of the report’s release. The military has not confirmed when the full findings will be made public.

(With inputs from agencies)