Why NCP will be the ‘kingmaker’ in Maharashtra assembly polls?

With less than a month to go, Maharashtra Assembly elections are set for a colossal battle of two alliances that did not exist merely three years ago. The voting for the 288 seats is set to take place on November 20 as national parties like Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Indian National Congress (INC) flex their muscle. Eyes will also be firmly on the divided Shiv Sena (SS) and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) as they enter their maiden elections after the internal split out in recent years.  

In the last five years unified SS, once an ally of BJP, decided to break the alliance and form a government with INC and NCP in 2019. Uddhav Thackeray, son of SS’s founder Bal Thackeray, became chief minister of state and gave a new direction to Maharashtra’s politics. An internal conflict in SS in June 2022 saw Eknath Shinde march out of the alliance and form a government with the BJP.

This meant that Shiv Sena was divided into two parties – Shiv Sena (led by Eknath Shinde) and Shiv Sena-UBT (Uddhav Bal Thackeray). SS-UBT would remain part of the INDIA bloc where INC is the leading national party.

A similar pattern also followed in the NCP, which also got divided in July 2023 when veteran leader Ajit Pawar decided to shake hands with BJP and SS in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Subsequently, the party was divided into – NCP and NCP-SP (Sharadchandra Pawar).

While there has been plenty of bad blood between Shiv Sena’s two factions, the same has not been the case in NCP. While Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde openly criticise each other, friction has only increased whenever they get the opportunity. The Dussehra Melawa (Shiv Sena’s annual public program on Vijayadashami festival) has seen plenty of bad blood being exchanged. The two factions have also gone personal to criticise one another since separation.

On the other hand, Ajit Pawar has been a silent customer despite being in the NDA. Interestingly, he refrains from directly criticising his uncle and former chief minister Sharad Pawar. While he sits in power with the BJP, Pawar and his supporters still maintain a mutual respect for NCP-SP’s supreme leader. NCP’s members who decided to join NDA went to meet Sharad Pawar in July 2023, days after the party was split.

While the friction was given a new turn in the general elections of 2024 where Ajit would field his wife Sunetra Pawar against Sharad Pawar’s daughter and sitting Member of Parliament Supriya Sule from the Baramati constituency, there was still no bad blood in the families. Sule would win the seat convincingly while Sunetra Pawar was later sent to the Rajya Sabha (the upper house of the Indian parliament). Despite all the chaos, NCP leaders still maintain close contact and mutual respect for NCP-SP leaders and family.

While it is almost unlikely for Shiv Sena to get unified after the elections, that won’t be the case in NCP. The base of mutual respect and Ajit Pawar’s reluctance to criticise Sharad Pawar shows that there is still humbleness in the NCP. If there is a scenario where the NCP could yet get unified with Ajit Pawar faction leaders seeking an apology, they are likely to be welcomed back with open arms.

While everyone is likely to write off Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction after a dismal show in the 2024 general elections, there is a number’s game that could prove otherwise. It is expected that Ajit Pawar’s NCP will get around 50 seats to contest in the Assembly elections in NDA. On the other hand, Sharad Pawar’s NCP is likely to contest on around 90 seats from the INDIA bloc. Considering, Ajit Pawar NCP’s poor strike rate in the general elections of 2024, they will be expected to win anything between 15-20 seats.

On the other hand, Sharad Pawar’s NCP will be expected to win anything between 60-70 after their 80 per cent win strike rate in general elections (NCP-SP won eight of the 10 Lok Sabha seats they contested).

If both the cases are met and the NCP decides to get unified after elections, the NCP could have anything in the region of 75-90 seats in the house. Interestingly, this could be the biggest success for NCP since its birth with their previous best being in 2004 where they won 71 seats.

According to strike rate conversion from general elections, a unified NCP could be the second-biggest party in the state after the BJP (likely to win about 80-90 seats based on Lok Sabha strike rate conversion). On the other hand, a unified Shiv Sena could clinch between 60-75 seats, but are unlikely to shake hands, meaning NCP could be the kingmakers in the Maharashtra assembly elections 2024 as no party could form a government without their support in the house.